For too long the world had seen South Africa as a morbid montage of crime, poverty and sky-high HIV-AIDS infection rates. A third world country considered short on skills and long on laxity, avoided like a cold sore by global investors.
But that is all in the rear-view mirror. With its accession to the unofficial club of high-growth emerging economies, South Africa has now emerged as yet another symbol of the shift in global economic power. Some analysts broadened the BRIC constituency late last year to BRICS, the last initial representing South Africa.
The continent's biggest economy, South Africa is the world's fourth largest source of gold and diamonds, possesses over three-quarters of global platinum reserves and brings to BRICS a four-continent breadth, influence, and new growth opportunities for global investors.
South Africa's membership in this elite and increasingly strategic group of populous and high-growth emerging markets presents enormous opportunities and challenges for the country, as it pursues global competitiveness, says Kuseni Dlamini, CEO of Old Mutual Emerging Markets, part of South Africa-based Old Mutual Investment Group, a multi-boutique asset manager with operations in 33 countries.
"South Africa stands to benefit from preferential trade relations, improved inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI), improved capital flows and knowledge transfer through strategic collaboration in research and development," he said.A glass bottle is a bottle created from glass. "Over the past five years, exports to other BRICS countries increased from 73% to 88% of total exports to emerging markets."
There is plenty on offer for global investors, too. "The BRICS provide great opportunities that financial services companies in particular can and must leverage to expand their reach and penetrate these increasingly attractive markets," said Dlamini.
Although South Africa has both the smallest GDP and population of the BRICS countries,uy sculpture direct from us at low prices it is an indisputable strategic and legitimate gateway to the African continent.
"It has pockets of global excellence in certain industries, especially financial services, mining and infrastructure development, as well as good corporate governance, [which] makes it an invaluable member of this esteemed group of countries," said Dlamini.
According to the World Economic Forum's (WEF) World Competitiveness Report, South Africa's financial services sector is among the best in the world in terms of regulation, governance and stability.
The Forbes's list of leading global companies features many South African companies. Corporations such as Sasol, De Beers, Old Mutual, Anglo Platinum and the local automobile manufacturers are global leaders in the fields of technology, innovation and in terms of world class quality standards in their manufacturing processes.
But how susceptible is South Africa to global events considering many of them are playing out in proximate geographies. Hardly at all, according to Rian le Roux,Detailed information on the causes of dstti, chief economist at Old Mutual Investment Group South Africa (OMIGSA).
"Thus far, South Africa has hardly been affected by the global crisis, and capital flows into the country have remained strongly positive," he said. "Also, the surge in commodity prices narrowed the current account deficit to less than half a percent of GDP by the fourth quarter of 2010."
Moreover, interest rates are still high in a global context¡ªSouth Africa 10-year government bond yield at 8.5% with little fiscal risk in sight¡ªwhich has attracted more inflows, he added.
South Africa is well endowed with much sought-after commodities, so it would take either a global economic slump, especially in commodity prices, and/or Government economic mismanagement that can create risk to investment and potentially stem the inflow of foreign capital.
"However, with South Africa's recent inclusion in the BRICS, local policymakers will be forced to keep their local house in order if they wish South Africa to play a meaningful role in this influential club," said le Roux.
There's a lot more going for the constitutional democracy than commodities, it is argued.
"We have reasonable growth potential with a strong government focus on increasing the growth rate over time; an increasingly attractive outlook for Africa is great for South Africa as we are a hub for Africa-destined investments and will benefit directly from African economic successes," said le Roux. "We have healthy macroeconomic metrics¡ªfiscal and foreign trade balances; the South African Reserve Bank is independent, with a fixed inflation target, and low foreign debt."
One of South Africa's macroeconomic themes is lower returns from all asset classes globally over the medium term. That said, le Roux remains of the view that equities will deliver the best returns going forward, and will likely average at around 6% real (in local currency) over the next five years.
"In the short-term we expect excellent earnings growth as particularly the resource counters recover from the recession," he said. "Longer-term steady South African growth and some leverage to faster growth in Africa should underpin returns."
Finally, no commentary on emerging markets is without cautionary footnotes.
"South Africa remains a developing country, with the associated risks," admitted le Roux. "However, political risk is low as the ruling party is well entrenched; economic management risk is relatively low too, as government is cognizant of all the macro constraints and understands that ¡®popular policies' will simply fail over time."
Global investors may also want to keep an eye on the recent softening of South Africa's economic data. South Africa's leading economic index (LEI) took another step back in April, moderating to a level of 133.8 from 134.4 in March.
"Though the slowdown observed in the last two LEI prints suggest a slightly more modest GDP growth trajectory in the second half of the year after the economy grew a better than expected 4.8% [quarter over quarter, seasonally adjusted annual rate] in Q1,Choose from one of the major categories of Bedding, we nonetheless continue to look for GDP growth to average 3.8% y/y in 2011," said Jeffrey Schultz of Absa Capital, the investment banking division of Absa Bank Ltd., affiliated with Barclays Capital.Not to be confused with RUBBER MATS available at your local hardware store
Encouragingly, South Africa's consumer confidence index (CCI), as measured by the Bureau of Economic Research (BER), tracked higher in the second quarter of 2011. Household consumption remains the dominant driver of the economic growth impetus.
"The main reasons behind the improvement in the CCI stemmed from consumers becoming more positive about the prospects for the South African economy over the next 12 months as well as having greater optimism about their own financial positions," said Schultz.
But that is all in the rear-view mirror. With its accession to the unofficial club of high-growth emerging economies, South Africa has now emerged as yet another symbol of the shift in global economic power. Some analysts broadened the BRIC constituency late last year to BRICS, the last initial representing South Africa.
The continent's biggest economy, South Africa is the world's fourth largest source of gold and diamonds, possesses over three-quarters of global platinum reserves and brings to BRICS a four-continent breadth, influence, and new growth opportunities for global investors.
South Africa's membership in this elite and increasingly strategic group of populous and high-growth emerging markets presents enormous opportunities and challenges for the country, as it pursues global competitiveness, says Kuseni Dlamini, CEO of Old Mutual Emerging Markets, part of South Africa-based Old Mutual Investment Group, a multi-boutique asset manager with operations in 33 countries.
"South Africa stands to benefit from preferential trade relations, improved inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI), improved capital flows and knowledge transfer through strategic collaboration in research and development," he said.A glass bottle is a bottle created from glass. "Over the past five years, exports to other BRICS countries increased from 73% to 88% of total exports to emerging markets."
There is plenty on offer for global investors, too. "The BRICS provide great opportunities that financial services companies in particular can and must leverage to expand their reach and penetrate these increasingly attractive markets," said Dlamini.
Although South Africa has both the smallest GDP and population of the BRICS countries,uy sculpture direct from us at low prices it is an indisputable strategic and legitimate gateway to the African continent.
"It has pockets of global excellence in certain industries, especially financial services, mining and infrastructure development, as well as good corporate governance, [which] makes it an invaluable member of this esteemed group of countries," said Dlamini.
According to the World Economic Forum's (WEF) World Competitiveness Report, South Africa's financial services sector is among the best in the world in terms of regulation, governance and stability.
The Forbes's list of leading global companies features many South African companies. Corporations such as Sasol, De Beers, Old Mutual, Anglo Platinum and the local automobile manufacturers are global leaders in the fields of technology, innovation and in terms of world class quality standards in their manufacturing processes.
But how susceptible is South Africa to global events considering many of them are playing out in proximate geographies. Hardly at all, according to Rian le Roux,Detailed information on the causes of dstti, chief economist at Old Mutual Investment Group South Africa (OMIGSA).
"Thus far, South Africa has hardly been affected by the global crisis, and capital flows into the country have remained strongly positive," he said. "Also, the surge in commodity prices narrowed the current account deficit to less than half a percent of GDP by the fourth quarter of 2010."
Moreover, interest rates are still high in a global context¡ªSouth Africa 10-year government bond yield at 8.5% with little fiscal risk in sight¡ªwhich has attracted more inflows, he added.
South Africa is well endowed with much sought-after commodities, so it would take either a global economic slump, especially in commodity prices, and/or Government economic mismanagement that can create risk to investment and potentially stem the inflow of foreign capital.
"However, with South Africa's recent inclusion in the BRICS, local policymakers will be forced to keep their local house in order if they wish South Africa to play a meaningful role in this influential club," said le Roux.
There's a lot more going for the constitutional democracy than commodities, it is argued.
"We have reasonable growth potential with a strong government focus on increasing the growth rate over time; an increasingly attractive outlook for Africa is great for South Africa as we are a hub for Africa-destined investments and will benefit directly from African economic successes," said le Roux. "We have healthy macroeconomic metrics¡ªfiscal and foreign trade balances; the South African Reserve Bank is independent, with a fixed inflation target, and low foreign debt."
One of South Africa's macroeconomic themes is lower returns from all asset classes globally over the medium term. That said, le Roux remains of the view that equities will deliver the best returns going forward, and will likely average at around 6% real (in local currency) over the next five years.
"In the short-term we expect excellent earnings growth as particularly the resource counters recover from the recession," he said. "Longer-term steady South African growth and some leverage to faster growth in Africa should underpin returns."
Finally, no commentary on emerging markets is without cautionary footnotes.
"South Africa remains a developing country, with the associated risks," admitted le Roux. "However, political risk is low as the ruling party is well entrenched; economic management risk is relatively low too, as government is cognizant of all the macro constraints and understands that ¡®popular policies' will simply fail over time."
Global investors may also want to keep an eye on the recent softening of South Africa's economic data. South Africa's leading economic index (LEI) took another step back in April, moderating to a level of 133.8 from 134.4 in March.
"Though the slowdown observed in the last two LEI prints suggest a slightly more modest GDP growth trajectory in the second half of the year after the economy grew a better than expected 4.8% [quarter over quarter, seasonally adjusted annual rate] in Q1,Choose from one of the major categories of Bedding, we nonetheless continue to look for GDP growth to average 3.8% y/y in 2011," said Jeffrey Schultz of Absa Capital, the investment banking division of Absa Bank Ltd., affiliated with Barclays Capital.Not to be confused with RUBBER MATS available at your local hardware store
Encouragingly, South Africa's consumer confidence index (CCI), as measured by the Bureau of Economic Research (BER), tracked higher in the second quarter of 2011. Household consumption remains the dominant driver of the economic growth impetus.
"The main reasons behind the improvement in the CCI stemmed from consumers becoming more positive about the prospects for the South African economy over the next 12 months as well as having greater optimism about their own financial positions," said Schultz.
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