2013年2月18日 星期一

Why some businesses will fail to see the writing on the wall

You consider producing it yourself, but decide that life would be easier if a big pencil company introduced the pen under their brand, and just sent you a royalty cheque every month. So you search the web and send out emails to pencil manufacturers. You try to whet their appetite without giving too much away. Despite the global opportunity, you don’t get many replies, but eventually you are invited to a meeting. You’re nervous, but it goes well and everyone seems convinced. “This could be absolutely revolutionary!”, someone says. Well, you think, if they can just crack a tiny share of the potential market, I will make a fortune. Negotiations begin, but they are painfully slow. The eventual offer seems very one-sided. They are not paying much, they want exclusivity, they will not commit to any minimum sales, and if they improve on your pen design, that’s to their benefit, not yours. You haggle without really making any progress, and you start to worry they’re secretly working on their own pen invention. You read about the Apple – Samsung patent dispute and realise you could never afford to fight such a battle against a big corporation. And you begin to suspect that perhaps the pencil company doesn’t really want the pen to become successful; perhaps they think it will destroy their pencil sales; perhaps they are just hoping you will run out of money and disappear.

In frustration, you change course and decide to manufacture and sell the pen yourself. You fly to China (which is what everyone does), and look for a manufacturer. Even there, though, you realise it will be expensive to manufacture. The unit cost is very high unless you make a large order, and invest in tooling. But you re-mortgage the house, cut back on family holidays, and produce some stock. And you create a website and start cold-calling stationery stores.My experience of your company has been excellent and I would happily buy mosaic tiles. With just a few sales, you are welcomed to the world of retail: warehousing,This solar lamp and phone charger can improve the lives of millons living without electricity. advertising, collecting payment, distributing product, low margins, product returns, warranties. Overwhelmed,Learn more about the different types of laser marking machine by careel-tech.com. you need to hire staff and are continuing to burn cash. You lose a potentially significant order due to a mishap, and a pen leaks in someone’s suit, ruining it. Frustrated and nearly broke, you give up, just as you see something very similar to your pen hit the market.

Depressed? As a backer of early-stage businesses, imagine how I feel – these are my daily struggles. But struggles are lessons we could use. An idea is worth nothing. Brilliance in invention needs to be matched by brilliance in commercialisation. “Day zero” is the day a deal is signed or the product hits the shelves. Most new businesses fail. Sadly, not every new pen is something to write home about.

A solid earnings report is expected from Apple at this point; what's needed is the excitement and hype Apple is famous for, and that's only possible by delaying and teasing the inevitable, the one thing everyone wants: a new device -- in this case,Learn how an embedded microprocessor in a smart card can authenticate your computer usage and data. a new iPhone.

Earlier this month, KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo – who has a particularly excellent track record when it comes to predicting products in the Apple pipeline, having correctly guessed most of last year’s devices and their release dates – said he believes Apple will release two new iPhones, including the “iPhone 5S” and “new design iPhone 5,” in Q3 2013, which will be some time between September and December.

Considering how Apple released the iPhone 4S in October and the iPhone 5 in September, one might assume Apple will release its next phone – the iPhone “5S” or “6” – in early September,How would you like to have a personalized bobbleheads of yourself. or even late August. However, instead of following this 11-month release date cycle, Apple should switch things up for its next iPhone, and release it at the very end of the year, either at the end of November or December.

Even though AAPL stock is not a great indicator of the company’s status or success, it does imply there is a general malaise among Apple fans. For the last 14 months, Apple has been going about its business as usual, releasing new products and services every few months with very few surprises. Each new iOS and Mac device is better than the last, but what else is new?

The iPhone 5, for whatever reason, created an incredible hype machine for more than a year. People originally believed the iPhone 4S would be named “iPhone 5,” but when it wasn’t, the “iPhone 5” rumors persisted throughout the next year, until Apple released the phone in late 2012.

The iPhone 5 has been a very successful product for Apple, but the company needs to reenergize its fan base if it hopes to outdo its iPhone 5 sales with the 2013 iPhone. To feed the hype machine, Apple should wait for a longer-than-normal period to release the iPhone 6.

Until the most recent quarter, the iPhone 4S was largely responsible for Apple’s most successful quarter in history in Q1 2012, despite no other iOS devices sold alongside it; even though the iPhone 5 was a hit product, the timing of its release date may have been slightly off; Apple gave itself more time to roll out the device in more countries, but customers were left more time to choose between Apple’s latest iPhone and all other smartphones released during that time.

Even though the iPhone 5 is a significantly better phone than the iPhone 4S, the 4S made a much greater impact than the iPhone 5 -- its only notable addition at the time being Siri. If Apple wants the iPhone 6 to be its best-selling smartphone ever, the company needs to release the phone closer to the Christmas holiday. Apple would be wise to release the iPhone 6 at the very end of November, which would leave it enough time to roll out in the U.S., as well as a handful of other countries, right before the all-important holiday rush.

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